The application of Mixture Cure models in the data analysis of the elderly injured due to collapse

Gholami, Ali; Bakhshi, Enayatollah; Rahgozar, Mehdi

Volume 6 - MEJDS (2016) 6: 216 | Back to browse issues page

‎ 20.1001.1.23222840.1395.6.0.43.4

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Gholami A, Bakhshi E, Rahgozar M. The application of Mixture Cure models in the data analysis of the elderly injured due to collapse. MEJDS 2016; 6 :216-223
URL: http://jdisabilstud.org/article-1-622-en.html

The application of Mixture Cure models in the data analysis of the elderly injured due to collapse

Ali Gholami¹

, Enayatollah Bakhshi¹

, Mehdi Rahgozar ^*¹

1- University of social welfare and rehabilitation sciences

Abstract: (5416 Views)

Abstract
Objective: Mixture Cure Models have been developed to analyze failure time data with a cured fraction. For such data, standard survival models are usually not appropriate because they do not account for the possibility of treatment. Mixture cure models assume that the studied population is a mixture of susceptible individuals who may experience the event of interest, and non-susceptible individuals that will never experience it. This study aimed to apply mixture cure models to analyze the elderly injured due to fall (collapsing) and to discover factors (such as age, blood pressure and …) on their cure rate or death rate.
Methods: This study compromises all the elderly injured due to fall in Qom County which their historical health files were available in Health Management Information System from 2010 to 2012. Follow up study was conducted through Civil Registration Organization data bases 3 years later and totally 124 cases were selected for analysis. Then, we fitted semi-parametric PH mixture cure model and semi-parametric AFT mixture cure model to the elderly injured due to fall by means of R package and we compared the results.
Results: The sample consists of 44 percent men and 56 percent women.43 percent of this population had one operation, 16 percent had diabetes, 31percent had blood pressure and about 52 percent had injured head and neck. Fitting semi parametric AFT mixture cure model revealed that age (p=0.016) statistically influenced on cure probability and injured neck and head (p=0.031) and diabetes variable (p=0.080) influenced on failure time probability.
Conclusion: This study revealed that neck and head injury of the elderly has significant influence on their death probability. Therefore, injuries due to fall (collapse) can be decreased by improving living conditions of the elderly. Furthermore, nutrition control can be used to minimize impacts of diabetes disease. Results indicate that we can use both PH and AFT semi-parametric mixture cure model for estimating the injured elderly due to fall data.

Keywords: Proportional hazard model, accelerated failure time model, Semi-parametric mixture cure model.

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Type of Study: Original Research Article | Subject: Rehabilitation

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